Arizona Cardinals

2005 Stats

2005 Season Summary

Preseason is the best season in Arizona

The Arizona Cardinals are an excellent example of a team that often turns it up and has their way in the preseason. Fittingly enough, for this perennial loser, the preseason is the best season for the Cardinals as they excel in the games that don't matter. But for the pro football bettor, preseason games count just as much as the regular season and profits are there for the taking for the shrewd gambler.

Arizona entered the 2005 preseason with a mark of 9-7 straight up and 11-5 against the spread in the previous four exhibition campaigns. Like many traditional doormats the Cardinals try and win preseason games in order to (1) build up the confidence of the players and set a tone for the regular season and (2) as a marketing tool. The rationale is that a successful preseason with a win or two over teams with sound reputations will cause fans who otherwise were not interested to take notice and consider buying tickets and team gear. To put it another way, teams with losing traditions know that the best publicity is winning as it causes fans hope.

Arizona entered preseason with a new veteran quarterback in Kurt Warner, who achieved fame as an NFL MVP and Super Bowl champion in St. Louis . The Cardinals were being touted as a potential “surprise' team for the 2005 season and head coach Dennis Green's reputation as a winner during his days in Minnesota added fuel to the hype. All the ingredients were there for the Cardinals to excel at the preseason just as they had done in the past.

The preseason opener had several advantages going for the Cardinals. Arizona was at home against the Dallas Cowboys, a team that always draws attention and respect, particularly since Bill Parcels took over as coach. With such an opponent Arizona was likely to play hard in front of what would be a larger than normal home crowd for an exhibition. Sure enough the Cards delivered the goods winning 13-11 as 1-point chalks.

Their next exhibition was at Kansas City against a Chiefs team that was suffering from a multitude of discipline problems as coach Dick Vermeil was running a soft camp. KC had dropped 6 of its previous 9 exhibitions ATS entering this tilt and the more serious minded Cardinals were getting juicy 4.5-points. The dog bit in a 24-17 straight up win.

The exhibition schedule continued to be favorable for both the Cardinals and gamblers alike as they next traveled to Oakland to face another team that habitually took the preseason lightly in the Raiders. Oakland had already dropped its first two games ATS in the 2005 preseason and had gotten the cash in just 6 of their last 20 exhibitions entering this matchup. Arizona was a bargain 3.5-point dog and bit yet again with a 17-16 win.

This set up the exhibition finale against Denver . The home standing Cardinals were 3-0 both straight-up and ATS but faced a Denver team that also played hard in exhibitions with just 7 ATS failures in their previous 24 preseason tilts, including 2 out of 3 cash grabs in 2005. Even more revealing was that Denver had covered 9 of their previous 11 exhibition road trips. This was a good time to get off the Cardinal gravy train as the Broncos prevailed 30-21 as 4.5-point dogs.

After posting a 3-1 mark both SU and ATS Arizona was feeling good heading into the regular season opener at New York against the Giants. This game would serve as a most valuable lesson to students and pros alike in the world of pro football betting.

Conventional Wisdom proves unwise

Warner started the previous season as the number one quarterback of the Giants before being benched midway through the season despite having Big Blue in playoff contention. In the week leading up to the game there was a lot of hype about the new look Cardinals and how Warner would be seeking revenge for being snubbed by the Giants. Sure enough, this story became gospel early in the week and the word on gambling chat boards and the streets of Las Vegas was that the Cardinals were a “sure thing” against a Giants team that collapsed in the previous season's stretch drive and who had a QB in Eli Manning that was still in on the job training. Once again conventional “wisdom” was to prove most unwise as the Giants blew out the Cardinals 42-19 as bargain 3-point chalks. And once again the Cardinals, who were coming off losing ATS regular seasons in two of the previous three years, would prove their regular season ineptitude.

Arizona came home to host St. Louis , who was upset at lightly regarded San Francisco the previous week. The Cardinals looked tempting as a one-point chalk, particularly with Warner's home debut against the team in which he achieved fame and fortune with. The line proved to be a trap as the more experienced and proven playoff contender Rams prevailed 17-12.

The season was quickly getting away

The season was quickly getting away from the Cardinals as they set off for Seattle against a determined Seahawk team that was 1-1 after a win and cover against Atlanta in their home opener. All of a sudden the oddsmakers detected the public turning on Arizona and made Seattle 6.5-point chalks, which proved to be a bargain as Seattle won going away 37-12 as Warner was injured during the game.

Next, fortunately, the Cardinals left the country for Mexico City and a matchup with a team as bad as themselves; San Francisco . Having to go with backup QB Josh McCown, the Cardinals were a 3-point chalk and got the cash with a 31-14 win. What was beginning to attract the attention of gamblers was that Arizona had gone over the total in 3 of their first 4 games.

Arizona next hosted a Carolina team that was touted as a playoff contender despite their 2-2 mark. The win over the 49ers drove down the Cardinals' value as they were just 2.5-home dogs in a 2-24 loss that, again, went over the total to make 4 out of 5 overs for Arizona .

The Cardinals enjoyed a nice rebound the following week in a 20-10 home win against struggling Tennessee . That was just a temporary respite, however, as the Cardinals dropped three-consecutive games both straight up and against the spread at Dallas , at home to Seattle , and at Detroit with all three games going over the total. Arizona was the dog in all three games.

Arizona was a dog again (+9) at St. Louis the next week. The Rams were their usual inconsistent selves and suffering from distractions with a coach/front office war. This was also a homecoming for Warner, who was back in the lineup. Arizona had the value back and won SU 38-28, their fourth straight “over” to make it 8 out of 10 overs for 2005. Arizona had dropped their previous 2 games that came off SU wins in 2005 and did so yet again as 3.5 home dogs to Jacksonville in a 17-24 loss that went under as the oddsmakers took away any value from an over play.

Stretch drive provides good value

The stretch drive saw Arizona go 2-3 SU and 3-1-1 against the spread as they proved to be a good value after starting out 3-8 against the number. Once written off and playing in meaningless games, Arizona had a proven record of success as they were 60% ATS in 2001-2004 their final 5 games of the season. The sports betting market also did a correction on Arizona totals as the value went to the under, as Arizona went that way 3 times in the final 5 games.